The offseason is only three weeks old but it has already proven to be a tumultuous one for the Yankees, with the departure of Joe Torre and his replacement by Girardi, the league's best hitter opting out of his contract, Posada just re-seigned, and the Yankees still ingoring what are the plans for the future of two of their main 2007 pieces: Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera.

In light of these events, NoMaas comes up with a three way plan for 2008 and beyond, a plan which we think improves the team in the short term while keeping its long-term prospects untouched and positions the team optimally to be competitive on a consistent basis.

As a disclaimer before you read this, we must warn that we have tried to stay away from the fanboy syndrome, where one expects that any franchise is going to hand out their best players to the Yankees while getting our lower-tier personnel in return.

This is clearly not happening (or at least, we refuse to view such scenarios as our base case) and as a result, the players we are planning to offer in the following plan are people who we sincerely did not want to leave the team, people we enjoy watching as much as any Yankee fan.

This is not an indictment of what we think of these individuals as players rather, a recognition that to get something valuable you have to give something valuable in return.Our proposal is actually a reflection of how much we value them, and more important, of how much they are valued by the baseball community, a fact we think the FO should exploit to extract maximum value for the Yankees present and future.
 

Part one: Cano+ for Santana
Johan Santana is rumoured to be on the block, as Minnesota is likely not going to be able to pay the kind of money a pitcher of his stature will command when he becomes a free agent next year, and will probably look to get the best possible return for him while it’s still time.

We have long thought about including a pitcher (Wang, or either one of Hughes / Joba) in a package for Johan, but given the relatively good pitching depth of the team we are dealing with, this may not make the most sense from their perspective. Additionally, we are very conflicted on the issue of whether the next six years of Santana at max dollars are of more value to the Yankees than the next six years of a cost-controlled pitcher with a very high ceiling like Hughes or Chamberlain.

On the other hand, the Twins do not have much talent in the field, and we just happen to have one of the most talented young infielders in the league, a guy who would immediately become one of three best hitters - Robinson Cano.

Cano in 2006: 126 OPS+, good for third best on the Twins behind Mauer (144) and Morneau (140)
Cano in 2007: 120 OPS+: good for third best on the Twins behind Torii Hunter (122) and Morneau (121)

Given that Hunter is more than probably gone, and that Cano would give them nearly identical offensive production as Morneau at a premium defensive position, there is a case he would instantly become their second most valuable player, with a strong argument for him being as valuable as Joe Mauer - especially if Mauer cannot remain a catcher on the longer term, while Cano continues manning second base with above average defense.

Cano is already one of the top two or three second basemen in all baseball, and has turned 25 only recently. Given that he has already started making adjustements this year, showing progress in what was one his key weaknesses in the past – plate discipline, as highlighted by his IsoD figures jumping from a poor 23 points in 2006 to 47 in 2007.

Moreover, he would provide all that while being cost controlled for a few more years, a fact of utmost importance for a budget conscious team like Minnesota.

We are not sure Cano himself gets it done, so we are ready to include him in a multi-player package, provided none of the additional players is an ML ready pitcher (like Hughes, Joba or even Kennedy) or someone in an area of particular need to the Yankees (here we think of Montero or Cervelli).

In light of the departure of Torii Hunter, we think someone like Melky Cabrera could be a good fit, as despite being below league average at the plate, he offers plus defense, a superb arm, and again, presents the advantage of being reasonable production at a cheap price.

In return, Johan Santana gives the Yankees an instant boost in the rotation, with the elusive ace this team has been looking for for a while now. We stress that we are not overly obsessed with ace status, and we certainly do not buy the argument that one needs such a pitcher to succeed in the postseason. After all, the 2007 Cy Young-elect was terrible this postseason, and Jeff Weaver of all people was a key pitcher for the 2006 World Champions.

That being said, the ability to rely on someone every five days, and to be almost certain that his particular pitcher gives you a tremendous chance to win every time out is of enormous value, especially when that pitcher is a 220+ IP a year horse.

Obviously, the innings may be a double-edged sword, as the workload might catch up to him at some point. We recognize that risk but at the same time, given Johan is only 28, we believe the Yankees would still get top-tier proudction for most of his tenure with the team.
 

Part two: Wang for Loney / Broxton
With Johan Santana at the forefront of our pitching staff, and provided Pettitte returns in order to seal the #2 slot, we are ready to enquire about what Wang could fetch in a trade with a prospects-laden franchise, say the Dodgers.

Here, we once again stress that such a proposal has nothing to do with our personal views on the player, and certainly not an overreaction following his poor ALDS performance.

What we think is that Wang has tremendous value, as a young pitcher with an excellent track record - a 119 career ERA+ at age 27 and two top 10 ranking in Cy Young votes - and his prime likely ahead of him. He is also the winningest pitcher in the AL over the last couple of years, and for whatever that means, there are people around for whom this matter, and we suspect Ned Colletti is one them.

What could the Yankees get in return? We suggest James Loney and Jonathan Broxton.

The former is a 23y old first baseman with tremendous hitting ability. In what amounts to slightly more than half a season (344 AB), he has posted a line of .331 / .381 / .538, good for 131 OPS+. Taking Chavez Ravine out of the equation, it is not unreasonable to think Loney could be one of the best hitters on the 2008 Yankees: although limited sample size disclaimers apply, Loney was .370 / .416 .661 / 1.077 out of LA.

His arrival would offset the departure of Cano, as the production lost at 2B with be more than compensated by getting – at last! – decent and steady output from a 1B with an equally bright (if not brighter) future. It also strengthens the bench, as the sub par players used as part time regular 1B in 2007 would now return to full bench and pinch-hitting duties.

The only downside we see is that it aggravates the OF/DH logjam, with Giambi, Damon and Matsui fighting for only two positions. We do not see this as a major issue though, given the very high injury risk these three players represent at this stage of their career.

The second part of the package we’d receive in return for Wang is a high-ceiling right-handed starter turned reliever, someone who would immediately fit our bullpen needs, for reasons we are about to explain.

Broxton was as dominant as a 23y old can be this year, posting a 2.85ERA in 82IP in relief for the Dodgers, along with a 10.87 K/9. This is the record of someone who could close for any team in baseball, and make a perfect so-called “heir to the throne” of Mariano Rivera – more on this in an instant.

Given the quality and degree of achieved development of the two players we’d get in return, we cannot be sure whether the Dodgers sign off on that deal. But on the other hand, we do not underestimate how high the perceived value of Wang is, a frontline starter giving you 200IP of well above average pitching year in year out, and think the value going both ways makes sense for the two organizations.
 

Part three: So long, Mariano

With Torre gone and Ca$hmoney more and more in charge of the destiny of the franchise, we think it’s time to part ways with one of the last bad habits of this franchise – the backward looking treatment, where the Yankees pay for past performance more than they do for projected future output.

It’s one thing to go slightly overboard with Posada, the best offensive catcher in the game, playing a position for which we haven’t go any even decent alternative. But with Broxton hypothetically on board, we would probably see a very minor dropoff at the closer position, if at all; and his presence would alleviate the pressure on Yankees management to keep Joba in the bullpen upon Mo’s departure.

Again, Mo is a fantastic player and to most people here at NoMaas, a true hero. We will never forget the countless memories he has given us over the years, but this is 2007, he is 38 year old, and we really don’t like the contract terms inflation we read and hear everyday in the media.

Three years at 39m (the rumoured first offer) was more than fair, as it gave him a salary increase over his last contract, despite him being older – thus less projectable, and coming out of his least impressive season in years.

But now that the offer is said to be 3/45, we think this would be a completely nonsensical contract to sign from the Yankees perspective, and we strongly suggest the front office thinks about it and withdraws the offer to consider alternative solutions.

As much as he was one of the most exciting player to watch in the last ten years, we have always opposed the notion that he was the most important player on the championship teams (Bernie Williams is the man you are looking for), because we believe there is just so much a reliever brings to the table, no matter how ridiculously good he is. And even then, we feel even more strongly that regardless of past achievements, there is no way a reliever is worth 15mn a year, especially at age 38, where projecting the next year is always an adventure.

Moreover, since Mariano is determined to continue pitching in the majors and is a surefire type A free agent, this would land the Yankees a couple of draft picks, in what projects to be a stacked 2008 draft.

The total trade
In summary, the Yankees would lose Wang, Cano and Mo, in exchange for Santana, Loney and Broxton.

1°/ Santana over Wang is an upgrade, and despite Santana’s atypical 2007 campaign making it look closer, we don’t expect the production gap between the two to revert in the near future.

2°/ Loney for Cano is a wash in our eyes, as Cano defensive value is offset by the higher projections for Loney's bat.

3°/ And Broxton over Mo is not that much of a downgrade when you look at the actual figures rather than mystique and aura. One will argue that Broxton is not as playoff tested as the postseason legend Rivera, but NoMaas’ view on this has always been that if the talent is there, the production will follow, regardless of context. After all, the Red Sox have given closer responsibilities to an inexperienced Papelbon for a couple of years now, and it doesn’t seem to us that this turned out to be a poor decision.

The result is the Yankees would get younger without suffering from a total output decrease, or if you prefer, they’d improve the quality of the team without doing so at the expense of the team’s long-term prospects.
It also leaves the core of our ML-ready pitching untouched, opening the door to a Santana – Pettitte – Moose – Hughes – Joba – Kennedy rotation that frankly, is quite exciting (well, maybe not Moose).

The downside here is the financial hit the Yankees would take by replacing cost controlled production from Wang with a monster extension to Santana. This will be partly mitigated by the 45 million not offered to Mo, and on a relative basis, we’d much rather the Yankees throw out millions of dollars for the chance of getting top production from a young starter in the middle of his prime than for a reliever whose projections, although probably very good, are really anyone’s guess.