Alan Horne had a huge 2007 season, surging onto prospect lists and garnering the attention of General Managers across the game. His performance for the Trenton Thunder this past season was so impressive that he was named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, after leading the Thunder to their first ever Championship. However, the problem with Horne's ascension into the prospect ranks is that he often isn't held in the regard that he deserves, as prospect pundits seem to rely on outdated and inaccurate information when evaluating him. We have seen Keith Law say that Horne has "an average fastball, 88-92," and Jim Callis follows along the same path when downplaying Horne's accomplishments in leading the EL in both ERA and strikeouts by saying that he was a second tier, or “B” level prospect.

The most dangerous critique leveled against Horne, though, is his age.  Having turned 24 prior to the 2007 season starting, it was widely accepted that the bulk of his success was predicated upon him being older than the majority of his peers in the EL. While this is certainly a consideration when evaluating his value as a prospect, it is virtually meaningless when determining his value as a player.

To explain this more thoroughly, in our discussions of player value here at NoMaas, we have arrived at a means of assessing the value of a young player in the minor league system. We call them the Three P's:

Projectability, Pedigree, and Production.

PROJECTABILITY: This has to do with the physical makeup of the player – his height, build, age, etc. Basically, it is using a player's physical traits as a means of drawing reasonable conclusions about what kind of progress they can make going forward. Take for example a guy like Delin Betances who is a fairly raw youngster, but stands 6'8" and sits in the low to mid nineties. Betances is very projectable because of his height and youth – the Yankees see him as being likely to perhaps add a few pounds in weight, and then use it in conjunction with his towering height to add a few more MPH to his fastball.  Projectability can also deal with raw skills, such as 80 power or a 95 MPH fastball, yet not a lot of polish on their overall game.

PEDIGREE: This has to do with how sought after a player was by teams, and is easily determined by looking at their position drafted and/or signing bonus. A player taken in the first few rounds of the MLB draft has a good pedigree, especially those taken in the 1st round. However, just because a player isn't taken in the first few rounds doesn't mean they don't have great pedigree, and this is where the signing bonuses come in. Because the talent isn't distributed linearly in the MLB draft, there can be late round draft picks with as much talent (or more) than even the 1st rounders. The way to quickly gauge the player's pedigree is to look at their signing bonus. For example, a guy like Austin Jackson was an 8th round pick in 2005, however the $800,000 bonus he received was the equivalent of what a supplemental 1st round pick received. The same applies, but to a lesser extent, with international free agents from Latin America and elsewhere.

PRODUCTION: This is the most obvious and easily interpreted facet of the 3 P's. Just look at the player's numbers. Easy. If you want to get fancy you can adjust them for the league they play in.

When assessing prospects for trade ideas, we like to look at the 3 P's very closely. A quick glance at how they apply to Alan Horne will help paint a better picture of what kind of prospect he actually is.

To start off with, I've already mentioned Horne leading the EL in both ERA and strikeouts, and averaging over one strikeout per inning pitched. Additionally, he also induced more groundballs than flyballs, which is a desirable trait in a pitcher that already racks up impressive strikeout totals. In summarizing his production in 2007, it can be said that Horne had a very impressive season.

Moving on to his pedigree, Alan is the son of a lifelong college baseball coach, and grew up in the baseball hotbed of the Florida panhandle. He was a 1st round selection out of Marianna High School in 2001, but turned down Cleveland's contract offer and instead chose to attend college at D-1 program, Mississippi. It was at UM that he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John Surgery, followed by two transfers (Chipola JC, University of Florida) and eventually foregoing a chance to be a 5th year senior in order to sign with the Yankees after they selected him with the 349th overall pick of the 2005 draft. Despite being picked in the 11th round, Horne received a $400,000 bonus, the equivalent of 3rd round money. So he has 1st round pedigree in his history, and after working back from his injury he received a huge late round bonus.

Finally, there is the discussion of his projectability, and it seems there isn't much to talk about. Horne has a prototypical pitcher's build, clocking in at 6'4" and 200 lbs (my fellow NoMaas staffer Brisco County, Jr. is 6'1", by the way) and in the prospect sense, doesn't stand to develop much more physically seeing as he is already 24 years old (turning 25 in January of 2008). This is a problem for a lot of prospect writers and pseudo-scouts because they seem to believe that because a player is essentially done developing physically, they can downgrade his prospect status. In a lot of cases this may actually be a reasonable knock on the player, but before deciding that he isn't a great prospect because he's older and isn't likely to develop further, people need to ask if he actually NEEDS to develop further to increase his value as a player. These are basically the bottom line questions: Is Alan Horne an incomplete prospect due to a lack of talent? Does it matter that he has already passed the years where pitchers develop their repertoire and add velocity?

To answer this question we need to get a scouting report generated relatively recently and from someone whose only job is to get an accurate read on baseball players' talents. To be more specific, I wanted to get an objective review of Horne's talents, without any outside commentary about his age or his injury history. Basically I wanted to know about Alan Horne the starting pitcher, not Alan Horne the trading chip. Luckily I was able to get an in depth scouting report from a man affiliated with an MLB team who has worked for over 20 years scouting and assessing pitching prospects, most recently focusing on the Eastern League. This report was prepared after watching Horne pitch on multiple occasions throughout the 2007 season.  It has been translated from scout-speak so it can be easily understood in its entirety.  Oh, and as is usually the case with these types, he didn’t want any semblance of his identity attached to the report.
 

2 Seam Fastball: Sits 91-92 MPH, good sink/run, movement comes late. Plus pitch. 4 Seam Fastball: Sits 92-94 MPH, hits 95-96 MPH periodically, saw a 97 or two, but infrequently. Decent movement. Plus pitch. Curveball: Sits 76-78 MPH, can be as high as 80 MPH. Not the classic 12-6, but instead more like 11-7. Very sharp bite. Good swing and miss pitch. Used as an out pitch. Can throw for strikes or bury in the dirt. Plus pitch. Slider: Sits 86-87. Good bite and depth. Saw a 90 MPH once. Plus for the most part, needs to stay on top of the slider to keep it a plus pitch. When he doesn't it can hang. Changeup: Sits 81-83 MPH, solid offering flashes plus at times but not consistently. Most underwhelming pitch in his repertoire. LHB have trouble with it when it's on

The only issue with Horne's stuff is that his command can come and go at times, especially when he is tired. Despite this lack of command at times, Horne still posted an impressive 3:1 K:BB rate in 2007.

So if he's got fantastic stuff and has gotten fantastic results, what does it matter how old he is? Sure, in the trading market the age variable plays a role because the chance of a player developing greater value as he matures is an intoxicating pursuit to baseball front office types.  However this emphasis on age has taken on a life of its own and morphed into something irrational. We've gotten to a place in prospect evaluation where even if a player such as Horne possesses enough tools *right now*, he will still get penalized because of his age. What more does he need? Alan Horne has three plus pitches in his arsenal and a fourth that has shown signs of becoming plus. His average fastball velocity is in the 93-94 range. He currently has Major League stuff. Period.

Looking further, there's a positive to his age and injury history. For starters, he's already gotten past most of the period where a young pitching prospect is at his greatest risk for serious arm injury. In other words, he's a big boy now. Second, he's already had a major arm injury and come all the way back from it. There are few pitchers that have to have TJS twice, and while I'll be crossing my fingers with all of the young pitchers the Yankees have brought up, my concerns about Alan will be greatly reduced. Third, and perhaps most importantly, he's shown the determination to fight through the grueling rehab that follows TJS. He's a guy that has put in the effort and seen the results. He fully understands what it means to work hard.

Again though, this is all secondary to the fact that Alan Horne has elite prospect stuff. Sure it would be sexier if he was 19 years old and producing the same results in the EL, but that additional attraction would only be for the sake of those trying to acquire Alan in a trade. This is why it is very dangerous to contemplate moving Alan at this point – the perception of his value is not in harmony with the tangible skills he has shown. John Manuel of Baseball America recently said in a radio interview (which was linked on the NoMaas front page on Sunday, 11/18) that a scout he talked to said that Alan had four plus pitches and his stuff profiled as "just a shade below Joba's." As a fan of the Yankees and someone who tries to view the construction of the team as objectively as possible, if the team is going to move a top pitching prospect this offseason, I'd place Alan Horne 3rd on the list of who to protect behind Joba and Hughes and ahead of Kennedy. I love all four of them and hope they are all pitching home games in the Bronx for years to come, but because of the high quality of his stuff and the willingness of much of the scouting community to assign him demerits for his age, the Yankees would likely be trading Alan for a return that would not equal his considerable abilities.

I have no idea if Alan Horne will make it in baseball, but what I have found out for certain is that he has a significant pitching repertoire that is Major League ready. Prospects that sit in the low to mid-nineties with movement, have two breaking pitches that profile as plus, and have the pedigree and performance history to go along with it should not be traded as "B" level prospects. Hell, they probably shouldn't be traded at all.